Poll Archive

Times Poll - May 2009

Fieldwork: May 6th 2009 - May 8th 2009

published by The Times

Click here to download detailed results 167k

Change since previous poll (April 5th-8th) shown in brackets

Labour	26% (-4%)
Conservative	39% (-4%)
Lib Dem	22% (+4%)
Others	13% (+4%)

Now I'd like you to think ahead to the next general election. Imagine that Alan Johnson, who is currently the Secretary of State for Health were to be Labour leader instead of Gordon Brown – and the Conservatives were led by David Cameron and the Liberal Democrats by Nick Clegg. Which party would you vote for then?

	Labour	Conservative	Lib Dem	Others	Net Conservative lead
If there was an election tomorrow	26%	39%	22%	13%	13%
At the next election if Alan Johnson was Labour leader	25%	42%	22%	11%	17%
Change	-1%	3%	0%	-2%	4%

Which party will you vote for in the European elections on June 4th?

	Labour	Conservative	Lib Dem	SNP	Plaid Cymru	UKIP	BNP	Green	Others	Net Con lead
General election	26%	39%	22%	3%	1%	3%	3%	2%	1%	13%
European elections	25%	34%	20%	4%	2%	6%	2%	5%	2%	17%
Difference	-1%	-5%	-2%	1%	1%	3%	-1%	3%	1%

How good a leader (on a 10-point scale) is…

All voters	Jan-06	May-06	Jul-06	Sep-06	Jan-07	May-07	Jul-07	Jan 08	Mar 08	Apr-08	May-08	Jun-08	Oct-08	Nov-08	May-09
Cameron	5.28	5.11	4.98	5.20	5.11	4.95	4.81	5.07	5.23	4.96	5.36	5.25	5.24	4.94	5.39
Blair	5.33	4.72	4.21	4.63	4.69	5.22
Brown						5.00	5.49	4.60	4.59	4.50	4.08	3.90	4.38	5.04	4.47
Kennedy	4.69
Campbell		4.70	4.50	4.47	4.65	4.20	4.36
Clegg								4.40	4.16	4.27	4.52	4.45	4.20	4.08	4.71

I'm going to read out some things which some people have said would improve the prospects for the government. Please say in each case if you think it would or would not make Labour more likely to win the next general election.

[Change since August 2008 shown in brackets]

A major reshuffle of the Cabinet by Gordon Brown, to bring in more fresh faces to the government

	All	Men	Women	AB	C1	C2	DE	Lab	Con	LD
Would	35% (-5%)	32% (-7%)	38% (-3%)	31% (-6%)	38% (-)	37% (-8%)	35% (-8%)	60% (+7%)	23% (-15%)	33% (-4%)
Would not	58% (+3%)	63% (+5%)	53% (-)	61% (+1%)	54% (-5%)	61% (+10%)	56% (+5%)	35% (-10%)	71% (+10%)	63% (+2%)
Net 'would'	-23% (-8%)	-31% (-12%)	-15% (-3%)	-30% (-7%)	-16% (+5%)	-24% (-18%)	-21% (-1%)	+25% (+17%)	-48% (-25%)	-30% (-5%)

Significant policy changes in major areas such as the NHS, crime and tax

	All	Men	Women	AB	C1	C2	DE	Lab	Con	LD
Would	54% (-2%)	50% (-5%)	58% (+2%)	52% (-2%)	52% (-6%)	64% (+10%)	52% (-5%)	69% (+6%)	45% (-4%)	56% (-7%)
Would not	40% (-1%)	46% (+4%)	35% (-6%)	44% (-)	41% (-)	33% (-9%)	41% (+3%)	26% (-8%)	52% (+2%)	43% (+7%)
Net 'would'	+14% (-1%)	+4% (-9%)	+23% (+8%)	+8% (-2%)	+11% (-6%)	+31% (+19%)	+11% (-8%)	+43% (+14%)	-7% (-6%)	+13% (-14%)

Gordon Brown standing down as Prime Minister to make way for an alternative leader

	All	Men	Women	AB	C1	C2	DE	Lab	Con	LD
Would	44% (-8%)	41% (-10%)	46% (-7%)	43% (-9%)	41% (-11%)	50% (-2%)	43% (-9%)	40% (-6%)	47% (-)	54% (-9%)
Would not	49% (+5%)	52% (+6%)	45% (+3%)	50% (+4%)	50% (+4%)	45% (+1%)	49% (+7%)	55% (+4%)	49% (+2%)	42% (+6%)
Net 'would'	-5% (-13%)	-11% (-16%)	+1% (-10%)	-7% (-13%)	-9% (-15%)	+5% (-3%)	-6% (-16%)	-15% (-10%)	-2% (-2%)	+12% (-15%)

Do you agree or disagree with each of the following statements? When it comes to abusing the system of MPs' expenses and allowances, all the parties are as bad as each other.

	All	Men	Women	AB	C1	C2	DE	Lab	Con	LD
Strongly agree	61%	61%	61%	58%	61%	60%	65%	66%	55%	54%
Tend to agree	25%	24%	26%	28%	28%	18%	24%	25%	32%	33%
All AGREE	86%	85%	87%	86%	89%	78%	89%	91%	87%	87%
Tend to disagree	7%	9%	5%	9%	4%	12%	4%	6%	7%	4%
Strongly disagree	3%	4%	3%	3%	3%	7%	2%	3%	4%	5%
All DISAGREE	10%	13%	8%	12%	7%	19%	6%	9%	11%	9%
Don't know	3%	2%	4%	2%	4%	3%	4%	0%	3%	3%
NET 'AGREE'	76%	72%	79%	74%	82%	59%	83%	82%	76%	78%

The way that MPs have acted in relation to their expenses and allowances is just the latest sign of how self-serving and out of touch most MPs are.

	All	Men	Women	AB	C1	C2	DE	Lab	Con	LD
Strongly agree	62%	63%	61%	55%	60%	73%	64%	48%	70%	61%
Tend to agree	23%	20%	27%	30%	26%	14%	21%	36%	20%	24%
All AGREE	85%	83%	88%	85%	86%	87%	85%	84%	90%	85%
Tend to disagree	5%	6%	4%	7%	8%	4%	1%	3%	5%	9%
Strongly disagree	6%	7%	5%	4%	3%	7%	10%	9%	4%	2%
All DISAGREE	11%	13%	9%	11%	11%	11%	11%	12%	9%	11%
Don't know	4%	3%	4%	5%	3%	2%	4%	2%	2%	4%
NET 'AGREE'	74%	70%	79%	74%	75%	76%	74%	72%	81%	74%

Even if their expense claims were allowed under the current rules, if MPs had any integrity they would never have claimed for the cost of many things that they did claim for - such as furnishings, cleaners and trivial household items.

	All	Men	Women	AB	C1	C2	DE	Lab	Con	LD
Strongly agree	62%	61%	63%	62%	57%	64%	64%	47%	72%	66%
Tend to agree	17%	17%	17%	17%	20%	16%	15%	26%	14%	15%
All AGREE	79%	78%	80%	79%	77%	80%	79%	73%	86%	81%
Tend to disagree	8%	8%	8%	10%	12%	2%	5%	15%	6%	12%
Strongly disagree	12%	13%	11%	9%	10%	17%	13%	12%	8%	6%
All DISAGREE	20%	21%	19%	19%	22%	19%	18%	27%	14%	18%
Don't know	2%	2%	2%	2%	1%	1%	3%	1%	0%	2%
NET 'AGREE'	59%	57%	61%	60%	55%	61%	61%	46%	72%	63%

Whatever the specific details are of reforms in the system of MPs' allowances and expenses, it is essential that the amounts they claim are scrutinised and approved by a body that is completely independent of Parliament.

	All	Men	Women	AB	C1	C2	DE	Lab	Con	LD
Strongly agree	79%	78%	79%	81%	75%	83%	77%	80%	80%	78%
Tend to agree	13%	13%	13%	12%	22%	10%	8%	13%	15%	14%
All AGREE	92%	91%	92%	93%	97%	93%	85%	93%	95%	92%
Tend to disagree	2%	2%	2%	2%	2%	0%	4%	2%	1%	3%
Strongly disagree	5%	7%	3%	4%	1%	7%	9%	5%	3%	4%
All DISAGREE	7%	9%	5%	6%	3%	7%	13%	7%	4%	7%
Don't know	1%	0%	2%	1%	0%	0%	2%	0%	1%	1%
NET 'AGREE'	85%	82%	87%	87%	94%	86%	72%	86%	91%	85%

Do you think that the balance of powers between Britain and the European Union gives too much power to the EU or not enough power to the EU, or do you think the balance is about right?

	All	Men	Women	AB	C1	C2	DE	Lab	Con	LD
Too much power to the EU	58%	60%	57%	56%	55%	60%	62%	55%	73%	55%
About the right balance	28%	29%	27%	34%	26%	25%	24%	33%	18%	35%
Too little power to the EU	6%	6%	7%	5%	8%	8%	5%	9%	4%	6%
Net 'too much power'	30%	31%	30%	22%	29%	35%	38%	22%	55%	20%

Do you agree or disagree with each of the following statements?

If Ireland and other countries ratify the Lisbon Treaty on the future of the European Union, Britain should hold its own referendum on the issue.

	All	Men	Women	AB	C1	C2	DE	Lab	Con	LD
Strongly agree	52%	61%	43%	59%	49%	49%	52%	46%	62%	52%
Tend to agree	30%	21%	38%	28%	31%	34%	26%	30%	31%	33%
All AGREE	82%	82%	81%	87%	80%	83%	78%	76%	93%	85%
Tend to disagree	8%	9%	7%	5%	9%	10%	8%	9%	5%	8%
Strongly disagree	5%	6%	5%	7%	4%	5%	6%	11%	2%	4%
All DISAGREE	13%	15%	12%	12%	13%	15%	14%	20%	7%	12%
Don't know	5%	3%	7%	2%	7%	3%	8%	5%	1%	2%
NET 'AGREE'	69%	67%	69%	75%	67%	68%	64%	56%	86%	73%

If the Lisbon Treaty goes through and the new post of President of the EU is established, the job should go to Tony Blair.

	All	Men	Women	AB	C1	C2	DE	Lab	Con	LD
Strongly agree	13%	14%	13%	11%	17%	9%	15%	38%	9%	9%
Tend to agree	21%	21%	21%	17%	18%	30%	21%	24%	16%	21%
All AGREE	34%	35%	34%	28%	35%	39%	36%	62%	25%	30%
Tend to disagree	23%	21%	24%	26%	24%	22%	17%	12%	23%	27%
Strongly disagree	40%	42%	38%	45%	35%	39%	43%	23%	52%	42%
All DISAGREE	63%	63%	62%	71%	59%	61%	60%	35%	75%	69%
Don't know	3%	3%	3%	1%	6%	0%	4%	2%	1%	1%
NET 'AGREE'	-29%	-28%	-28%	-43%	-24%	-22%	-24%	27%	-50%	-39%

The European Parliament has a positive impact on the lives of ordinary people.

	All	Men	Women	AB	C1	C2	DE	Lab	Con	LD
Strongly agree	27%	26%	28%	25%	25%	31%	30%	40%	29%	25%
Tend to agree	34%	31%	37%	32%	38%	35%	30%	39%	25%	45%
All AGREE	61%	57%	65%	57%	63%	66%	60%	79%	54%	70%
Tend to disagree	19%	18%	19%	22%	17%	15%	22%	10%	23%	16%
Strongly disagree	17%	23%	12%	21%	16%	17%	16%	9%	21%	13%
All DISAGREE	36%	41%	31%	43%	33%	32%	38%	19%	44%	29%
Don't know	2%	2%	3%	0%	4%	2%	3%	2%	2%	0%
NET 'AGREE'	25%	16%	34%	14%	30%	34%	22%	60%	10%	41%

Britain benefits from being a member of the EU.

	All	Men	Women	AB	C1	C2	DE	Lab	Con	LD
Strongly agree	20%	23%	17%	22%	21%	18%	16%	39%	14%	23%
Tend to agree	31%	28%	34%	30%	36%	32%	22%	32%	33%	35%
All AGREE	51%	51%	51%	52%	57%	50%	38%	71%	47%	58%
Tend to disagree	16%	15%	17%	18%	14%	16%	17%	14%	19%	12%
Strongly disagree	30%	33%	28%	27%	26%	34%	39%	13%	32%	30%
All DISAGREE	46%	48%	45%	45%	40%	50%	56%	27%	51%	42%
Don't know	3%	2%	3%	2%	2%	0%	6%	1%	1%	1%
NET 'AGREE'	5%	3%	6%	7%	17%	0%	-18%	44%	-4%	16%

The European Parliament is an irrelevant talking shop and a gravy train for its Members.

	All	Men	Women	AB	C1	C2	DE	Lab	Con	LD
Strongly agree	29%	37%	23%	33%	25%	26%	37%	21%	35%	28%
Tend to agree	29%	29%	29%	29%	28%	31%	29%	21%	35%	28%
All AGREE	58%	66%	52%	62%	53%	57%	66%	42%	70%	56%
Tend to disagree	22%	15%	28%	20%	28%	22%	13%	22%	23%	24%
Strongly disagree	15%	17%	14%	17%	14%	18%	12%	22%	10%	12%
All DISAGREE	37%	32%	42%	37%	42%	40%	25%	44%	33%	36%
Don't know	5%	3%	6%	1%	5%	4%	9%	3%	3%	2%
NET 'AGREE'	21%	34%	10%	25%	11%	17%	41%	-2%	37%	20%

Populus interviewed a random sample of 1,504 adults aged 18+ by telephone between May 8th & 10th 2009. Interviews were conducted across the country and the results have been weighted to be representative of all adults. Populus is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules. For a full description of the methods we use, please click here.

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